Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.31% this morning, level with Tuesday and 7 bps under Monday's 7.38%. The 10-year Treasury is trading at 5.00% after closing Tuesday at 4.99%, so bonds are parked right at the round number into the decision. Mortgage News Daily called Tuesday a sideways session, with bonds holding steady while the tech-sector worries that helped fuel the mid-October rally kept consolidating. Freddie Mac's PMMS read 7.32% last Thursday, 0.08 lower on the week and 0.29 higher than a month ago, so rates have moved up modestly over the past month even with last week's dip.
The statement lands at 2:00pm ET today, the press conference at 2:30pm, and there is no dot plot this meeting; fed funds sits at 3.88%. The wording on future meetings is what can move pricing this afternoon, in either direction. Thursday the 29th brings PMMS and jobless claims, plus Freddie Mac's third-quarter results before the open; core PCE is due in a window running through Friday the 30th, and the next jobs report is November 6.
On range, 7.31% sits under Bankrate's 30-day average of 7.44%, inside a 30-day band of 7.22% to 7.57%, and 64 bps above the 90-day low of 6.67%, against a 90-day average of 7.05%. That leaves today's level 26 bps off the 30-day high, about $71 a month less on a $400K loan than at that peak. The jumbo side is the lens worth running today: Bankrate's jumbo 30-year reads 7.36%, just 5 bps over its conforming 30-year. The jumbo series has run from 6.74% to 7.66% since it resumed in mid-August, so it sits nearer the top of that band than the bottom, but the jumbo premium itself is thin. On a $900K loan, 7.36% works out to about $6,207 a month in principal and interest.
The focus today is every unlocked file closing in the next 30 days, jumbo buyers included. A statement that reads more cautious on future cuts could push the 10-year through 5% and pricing with it; a softer read could do the reverse, and neither is knowable at 9:00am. For borrowers who cannot absorb a worse afternoon, locking before 2:00pm removes the risk. For jumbo buyers, the near-parity with conforming is a point worth making now, since a spread that thin can widen without much warning. Do this today: send a lock-or-float recommendation to every unlocked borrower closing within 30 days before 1:00pm ET, and get a yes or no back before the statement.