The Fed held and the rate barely noticed. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.31% this morning, unchanged since Tuesday and 7 bps under Monday's 7.38%. Wednesday's statement kept the target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a hike. Mortgage News Daily read the afternoon as minimal impact: markets trimmed hike odds after Chair Warsh's wait-and-see press conference, while the long end weakened a bit, and the 10-year Treasury closed Wednesday at 5.05%, up from 4.99%. This morning BEA put September PCE inflation at 3.6% from a year earlier and core at 3.1%, with Q3 GDP at a 3.4% annual rate. The 10-year is trading around 5.00% after the release. Freddie Mac's PMMS read 7.32% last Thursday, 0.08 lower on the week and 0.29 higher than a month ago, so rates have moved up modestly over the past month.
Next up: a new PMMS reading lands today, and weekly jobless claims printed 194,000 this morning against 195,000 the prior week. Treasury's quarterly refunding on November 4 sets the next buyback sizes, the next jobless claims print is November 5, and the October jobs report lands November 6. The December 8-9 FOMC meeting carries a dot plot, and with the statement saying inflation "remains elevated," the jobs report is the next major print before that meeting.
On range, the 30-year at 7.31% is the low of its 30-day window, which ran 7.31% to 7.57%, but still above its 90-day average of 7.05% and well off the 6.67% low from August 19. The government-loan side is steadier still. Bankrate's FHA 30-year reads 7.16% for a fourth straight day, 15 bps under the conventional 30-year, and its VA 30-year is 7.07%, 24 bps under. FHA has run 7.02% to 7.24% over the past 30 days, near the top of its 6.32% to 7.24% range since the series resumed in mid-August.
The segment today is FHA purchase buyers, who just got a new reason to shop: Zillow Home Loans launched a forgivable FHA down payment second loan this week, covering up to 3.5% with no income cap or first-time requirement. With the rate itself flat, the conversation with those buyers is about total cash to close and payment, not timing the market. On a $300K FHA loan at 7.16%, principal and interest runs about $2,028 a month, before mortgage insurance, taxes and homeowners insurance. Do this today: send your FHA pre-approvals a fresh payment and cash-to-close sheet that includes every down payment assistance option you can offer them.