The weekend adds no new rate data, so this is a quiet read. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.28% this morning, the same as Thursday and Friday, 8 bps under last Saturday's 7.36% and 29 bps under the October high of 7.57% on October 12. Mortgage News Daily's index closed Friday at 7.27%, down 0.02, and the 10-year Treasury finished at 4.93%. MND ties the week's relief to tech-stock jitters, which sent bonds rallying late Thursday and held most of that gain Friday, rather than new inflation or Fed news. Freddie Mac's PMMS, a different weekly survey, printed 7.24% on Thursday, down 0.08 for a second straight week.
The calendar for the week ahead is full. Treasury's quarterly refunding is Wednesday, November 4. Weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS land Thursday, November 5, and the October jobs report plus the unemployment rate arrive Friday, November 6; the September report showed payrolls up 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, up from 4.1%. The CPI window opens November 10, after September CPI ran 3.7% from a year earlier. The next FOMC meeting is December 8-9 and carries a dot plot. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Friday that at least two more quarter-point hikes are needed, but she also said that as long as markets understand the plan, the precise timing of each increase has little effect on longer-term mortgage rates, according to Scotsman Guide.
With the conventional rate flat for three days, the more useful read is the product ladder, all from Bankrate: conventional 30-year 7.28%, FHA 7.14%, VA 7.04%, jumbo 7.40% and the 15-year fixed 6.72%. Over the past week VA fell 12 bps from 7.16%, conventional fell 8, FHA fell 5 and jumbo fell 3. On a $300,000 loan, 7.04% against 7.28% is about $49 a month in principal and interest, and about $65 on $400,000, before mortgage insurance and the VA funding fee. For the longer view, Bankrate's 30-year has ranged from 6.67% to 7.57% across the last 91 daily readings, and 7.28% sits above that window's 7.06% average.
The segment today is borrowers who were quoted conventional but may qualify for VA or FHA, because that is where this week's pricing gap is widest. Lock advice for in-flight files: the rate sits at its monthly low, so a borrower comfortable with today's payment has that low in hand, while a borrower who floats is taking on the Wednesday refunding and Friday's jobs report. Do this today: find the veterans and FHA-eligible borrowers in your pipeline you quoted on a conventional loan and re-run their payment at this morning's VA or FHA rate.