Rates are quiet today, with no new catalyst beyond what Saturday's pulse covered. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.28%, unchanged for four days running, 8 bps under last Sunday's 7.36% and 19 bps under 7.47% on October 2. The 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.94%, and Freddie Mac's PMMS, a different weekly survey, printed 7.24% on Thursday. The weekend adds no new rate data.
The week ahead builds toward Friday. Treasury's quarterly refunding is Wednesday, November 4. Weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS land Thursday, November 5, and the October jobs report plus the unemployment rate arrive Friday, November 6; the last report showed unemployment at 4.2%, up from 4.1%. The CPI window runs November 10 through 15. The next FOMC meeting is December 8-9 and carries a dot plot, so the jobs report is the biggest scheduled print before it.
RANGE, through the government-loan lens: today's FHA 30-year reads 7.14%, the VA 30-year 7.04% and the jumbo 30-year 7.40%, all Bankrate readings, which puts VA 24 bps and FHA 14 bps under the conventional 7.28%. The conventional 30-year sits at the bottom of its 30-day range of 7.28% to 7.57%, but 61 bps above its 90-day low of 6.67% and about 21 bps above the 90-day average of 7.07%. Relief is real but partial. On a $400,000 loan the payment is about $52 a month below the October 2 level and $79 below the October 12 peak.
DO: the focus is borrowers who got quotes in the second week of October, near the 7.57% peak. Their number has improved by roughly $60, $79 and $99 a month on $300,000, $400,000 and $500,000 loans, enough to justify a fresh quote but not a rush. Do this today: pull files quoted October 8 through 16 and queue a refreshed quote for each before Friday's jobs report moves the market.