The bond market is quiet today, with no new print to add to what this week's pulses have covered. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.28% for a fifth straight reading, 10 bps under last Monday's 7.38%. The 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.89% after closing Friday at 4.94%, a move Bankrate's number has not reflected yet. Freddie Mac's PMMS, a different weekly survey, printed 7.24% last Thursday, down 0.08 from the week before.
The calendar does the work this week. Treasury's quarterly refunding is Wednesday, November 4. Weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS land Thursday, November 5. The October jobs report and unemployment rate arrive Friday, November 6, after September showed payrolls up 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, up from 4.1%. The CPI window runs November 10 through 15, following a 3.7% year-over-year reading for September. The next FOMC meeting is December 8-9 and carries a dot plot, which makes Friday's report the largest scheduled print before it.
RANGE, through the 15-year lens: Bankrate's 15-year fixed reads 6.72%, 56 bps under the 30-year. Across the last 90 days the 15-year has run from 6.03% to 6.84% and the 30-year from 6.67% to 7.57%, so the 30-year sits at the bottom of its 30-day range of 7.28% to 7.57% but 61 bps above its 90-day low and 21 bps above its 90-day average of 7.07%. On a $400,000 loan, the 15-year at 6.72% costs about $3,533 a month in principal and interest against $2,737 for the 30-year at 7.28%, $796 more each month, while total interest over the life of the loan comes to about $236,000 instead of about $585,000.
DO: the focus today is borrowers who can carry a higher payment and plan to stay put, such as past clients with strong income who are weighing a rate-and-term refinance or buyers putting a large amount down. The 15-year is not the right fit for a payment-sensitive file, and for them the 30-year at its monthly low is the conversation. Lock advice for in-flight files is unchanged: a borrower comfortable with today's payment has the monthly low in hand, and a borrower who floats is taking on Wednesday's refunding and Friday's jobs report. Do this today: pick three files where the borrower has payment room and run a side-by-side of the 15-year and 30-year at today's rates.