Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.26% today, down 2 bps from the 7.28% it held for five straight readings and the lowest print in its 30-day window. The 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.92%, a touch above Monday's 4.91% close, so the move in Bankrate's number reflects lender pricing catching up to the 10-year's slide from Friday's 4.94% close rather than a new rally today. Mortgage News Daily's Monday close had bonds barely changed despite a sharp drop in oil and tech stocks. Freddie Mac's PMMS, a different weekly survey, printed 7.24% last Thursday, down 0.08 from the week before.
Every catalyst this week is still ahead of us. Treasury's quarterly refunding is Wednesday, November 4. Weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS land Thursday, November 5. The October jobs report and unemployment rate arrive Friday, November 6, after September showed payrolls up 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%. The CPI window runs November 10 through 15, following a 3.7% year-over-year reading for September, and the next FOMC meeting is December 8-9 and carries a dot plot. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has said at least two more hikes are needed, which is the backdrop a strong payroll number would land against.
RANGE: 7.26% is now the bottom of the 30-day window (7.26% to 7.57%, average 7.42%) and 31 bps under the 7.57% high Bankrate printed on October 12. Over 90 days the picture is less generous: the window runs 6.67% to 7.57% with a 7.08% average, so today still sits on the expensive side of the summer range. On a $400K loan, today's payment is about $2,731 a month, about $85 less than at the October 12 high. Mortgage News Daily's lead ARM, a 7/6 SOFR ARM, holds at 6.70% in its own survey.
DO: the borrowers to call are the ones who got a quote near the mid-October peak and stepped back. Their payment is now meaningfully lower than the number that scared them off, and Friday's report can move it either way. For in-flight deals closing within 30 days, the 30-day low is a reasonable place to lock rather than carry jobs-report risk into the weekend. Do this today: pull every borrower you quoted between October 8 and October 20 who did not lock, and send each one their updated monthly payment at today's rate.