Rates walk into tomorrow's inflation report at the top of their recent range. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.57% this morning, the high of its 90-day range, while the 10-year Treasury yield opened at 5.19%, down from 5.24% at Friday's close as the bond market reopens after Columbus Day. The Fed message going into the print is mixed. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, an FOMC voter, told the National Association of Business Economists on Monday that inflation pressures are "relatively broad-based," driven by war, tariffs, a shrinking labor force and AI infrastructure spending. She backs a restrictive stance but said higher rates will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz or lower energy prices, and that their main effect may be some firms delaying expansion. Redfin's weekly read is that a hike at the October 27 to 28 meeting looks unlikely unless CPI surprises, while December stays very much in play.
The other story out of MBA Annual in Chicago is credit reports. MBA CEO Bob Broeksmit told the convention on Monday that tri-merge is "outdated and unnecessary" and that he is increasingly confident it "won't be around for long." HousingWire reports FHFA Director Bill Pulte has said on social media that the agency is studying both a bi-merge report, using two of the three bureaus, and a single-pull option. Two reads on what comes next: HousingWire had Pulte moving his convention appearance to a virtual session today, while Scotsman Guide reported Monday evening that an MBA spokesperson said he had backed out entirely, citing scheduling conflicts, after Bloomberg reported he might use the slot to announce bi-merge. Nothing has been announced, so nothing changes in what you pull today.
The two stories meet at the closing table. A bi-merge or single-pull change would trim a credit-report cost borrowers pay, but the rate side is where the payment pressure sits. Bankrate's 30-year has climbed from 6.90% thirty days ago to 7.57% today, which moves the principal and interest on a $400K loan from about $2,634 to $2,816 a month. Freddie Mac's PMMS read 7.40% on October 8. New supply is not easing the picture either: NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz told Scotsman Guide he expects single-family production to fall another 4% to 5% this year after a 7% drop in 2025, and to decline about 3% more in 2027.
The calendar is tight. BLS releases September CPI tomorrow, Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 am Eastern. PPI follows Thursday, October 15, along with jobless claims and the next PMMS, and housing starts and permits land in the October 16 to 18 window. The October 27 to 28 FOMC meeting carries no dot plot; December 8 to 9 is the meeting with new projections. Redfin frames the bar for October this way: CPI and PPI would need to point to core PCE running above 0.3% a month to put a hike back on the table.
Licensing note for every MLO: the Conference of State Bank Supervisors opened a job analysis survey for the SAFE MLO National Test on October 12, running through November 6. State-licensed MLOs will get an email invitation from CSBS, which manages NMLS, and the answers shape what the national test covers going forward. In industry news, HousingWire reports criminals used 79 dormant domains to impersonate a top real estate team, a reminder to confirm wiring instructions by phone on every file. Optimal Blue is acquiring borrower-engagement platform Usherpa and plans to integrate it natively, and eXp Realty told HousingWire its mortgage joint venture with Newrez launches in January 2027.
call every client with an unlocked loan closing in the next 45 days and settle, before 8:30 am tomorrow, whether they lock now or ride through the CPI print, with their payment at today's rate in front of them.