The October jobs report landed this morning with a firmer labor read. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports payrolls rose 165,000 in October, unemployment edged down to 4.1% from 4.2%, and August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs (August to 186,000, September to 60,000). Realtor.com Research describes the gain as more than double expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and 3.1% over twelve months. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.86% in early trading, 2 bps above Thursday's 4.84% close, so bond pricing is not rallying on the print.
On the rate side, Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.18%, the bottom of its 30-day window (the 30-day high is 7.57%) and 10 bps under last Friday's 7.28%. Freddie Mac's PMMS survey, a separate measure, also printed 7.18% on Thursday, down 6 bps for a third straight weekly decline. A firmer labor read does not give a float any help this morning, so a file that locks at 7.18% is locking at the bottom of the past 30 days rather than giving up a pending improvement.
For a $400K loan, 7.18% is about $2,710 a month in principal and interest, against about $2,816 at the 30-day high of 7.57%, roughly $106 less. The next scheduled catalysts are close: the 10-year refunding auction of $42 billion on Tuesday, Nov. 10, which falls inside the Nov. 10-15 CPI window, then the 30-year auction of $25 billion on Thursday, Nov. 12, alongside weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS. The Dec. 8-9 FOMC meeting carries a dot plot.
On the regulatory side, the CFPB's semiannual report to Congress says the Bureau closed 1,327 of the 1,552 supervisory actions open on July 1, 2025 (about 86%), closed 66 of 80 open examinations after reassessing them, and closed about 40% of its pending investigations. It also says supervised entities will get advance notice of scheduled examinations, with exam requests held to the defined scope. Separately, FinCEN and the Federal Reserve Board are withdrawing the 2020 proposal to lower the $3,000 threshold to $250 for cross-border funds transfers under the recordkeeping and Travel Rules; the withdrawal takes effect on publication in the Federal Register, scheduled for Monday, Nov. 9, and the agencies say they will take no further action on that proposal. The FFIEC also released the 2025 small business, small farm and community development lending data. On the product side, TransUnion data reported by National Mortgage News shows second-quarter home equity originations up 10.1% year over year to 757,000, with HELOC originations up 20.3%.
list every in-flight file closing within 30 days, note which are floating, and send each of those borrowers their current payment at 7.18% with a clear lock-or-float choice before the Nov. 10 auction.