Monday's biggest number is a condo number. Redfin estimates there were 123% more condo sellers than buyers nationwide in September, the widest gap in its records dating to 2013 and up from 95.5% a year earlier. Its estimate puts condo buyers at 88,460, the lowest level in at least 13 years, against 197,248 sellers. The median condo sold for about $339,000, down 0.8% from a year earlier, about 37% of condos that sold in September had a price cut, and the typical sale spent 63 days on the market before going under contract. The surplus is widest in San Antonio (459%), Houston (322%), Miami (274%) and Austin (258%); among the 50 most populous metros, Nassau County, New York, is the only one Redfin scores as a seller's market. For comparison, Redfin puts the single-family seller surplus at 53.7%.
The demand side got its own read over the weekend. HousingWire reports NAR sees pent-up demand waiting on lower mortgage rates and better sentiment, citing a population of 350 million and 159 million payroll jobs against home sales running near 4 million. Our own data has existing-home sales at a 3.99 million annual pace in September, and the University of Michigan's November sentiment reading at 51, up from 48.
The connection for loan officers: a condo buyer who can negotiate on price still has to clear the project. A seller paying for a price cut or concessions does nothing for a file that stalls in condo review, and the review gets stricter soon: Fannie Mae's condo reserve minimum rises to 15% for applications on or after Jan. 4, 2027. Pull the HOA budget and project questionnaire before the offer goes in, not after.
On rates, Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.20% for a third straight day, 2 bps above its 30-day low of 7.18% and 35 bps below the 7.55% it read 30 days ago. The 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.84% this morning, down from Friday's 4.86% close. Freddie Mac's PMMS last printed 7.18%, down 6 bps on the week. The CPI window opens Tuesday, Nov. 10, the same day as the $42 billion 10-year note auction; Thursday, Nov. 12 brings jobless claims, the next PMMS and the $25 billion 30-year bond auction. The Dec. 8-9 FOMC meeting carries a dot plot, with the fed funds rate at 3.88%. On a $305,100 condo loan (10% down on the $339,000 median), 7.20% is about $2,071 a month in principal and interest, $77 less than at Bankrate's 30-day high of 7.57%.
Two compliance and policy notes. National Mortgage News counts seven more origination shops sued under the Telephone Consumer Protection Act since August, including Swift Home Loans, Mutual of Omaha Mortgage and Barrett Financial Group, in cases built on the National Do Not Call Registry: two or more unwanted calls in a 12-month period to a registered number, with damages of $500 to $1,500 per call for a willful and knowing violation. WebRecon data cited in the piece has federal TCPA complaints up about 13% on the year through October even as September's 191 filings ran 27% below a year earlier. Separately, HousingWire reports Massachusetts voters narrowly rejected a ballot measure that would have allowed single-family homes on smaller lots than most local zoning permits, so local minimums stay in place for builders and buyers there.
before anyone on your team calls or texts past clients about Tuesday's CPI number, scrub that list against the National Do Not Call Registry and your internal do-not-call list, and pull any number without documented consent.