With 7% rates into 2027, market the low rate your clients keep

The MBA's annual convention in Chicago set the frame for the next fifteen months on Sunday: the association expects the 30-year to stay above 7% through 2027, refinance applications are running 40% to 45% below their January pace, and MBA projects 2027 refinance volume at $571 billion of a $1.99 trillion total. National Mortgage News's read of the same session is that home equity is the 2027 growth play, and Figure's data on more than 500,000 HELOC applications, reported by HousingWire, describes a borrower group with high monthly debt and significant equity. That is a content calendar handed to you: for a past client with a low first-mortgage rate, the conversation is how to use equity without giving that rate up.

Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.55% today, the top of its 90-day range of 6.59% to 7.55%, which leaves little room for a rate-and-term refi pitch right now. MBA puts about half of outstanding mortgages below 4% and over 20% at 6% or higher. The first group is the equity audience: a cash-out refi would trade a 3% first lien for today's 7.55% on the whole balance, and a second lien leaves that first mortgage alone. The second group is the one to keep warm for later, since MBA's lower-rate scenario, 100 basis points under its baseline, is where refinance volume rises to $1.03 trillion from $571 billion.

The tactical move this week is segmentation by first-lien rate. Split your past-client list at 5%: below it, every touch is about equity, home value and protecting the rate they have; at 6.5% and above, the touch is a rate-watch sign-up so they hear from you first if rates fall. Keep the two messages apart, since the rate-watch note means nothing to a client at 3%. September CPI lands Wednesday, October 14, and if rates move after it, the rate-watch list is the one to message the same morning.