ARMs hit 14% of locks, so market the fixed-versus-ARM choice

The marketing story this week is product choice. National Mortgage News reports Optimal Blue's September Market Advantage data: ARMs made up 14% of rate locks, up from 10.5% in August and the highest share since the report began in 2019, while nonconforming loans, the bucket that holds non-QM, took 23.6%. Rate-and-term refinance locks fell 82% from a year ago and cash-out locks fell 23%, while purchase locks were virtually unchanged. Fannie Mae's October forecast points the same way: Scotsman Guide reports it cuts 2027 refinance volume by more than 46% to $430 billion and trims purchase volume 2.8% to $1.43 trillion. The borrowers still in motion are buyers, and owners who need cash without giving up the rate they already have.

The rate backdrop keeps it that way. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.50% this morning, up from 7.00% a month ago and near the top of its 90-day range of 6.61% to 7.57%. That is about $2,797 a month in principal and interest on a $400K loan, $136 more than a month ago. The 10-year rallied this morning, but the survey averages have not moved with it, so this is not a week to market a refinance window. It is a week to help a buyer compare a fixed rate against an adjustable one on their own numbers, and to help an owner with a low first mortgage fund a project without replacing it.

The tactical move is a one-page fixed-versus-ARM comparison you can drop into any purchase file: the 30-year fixed payment, the ARM start payment, the first adjustment date, the caps, and the worst-case payment after the first reset, all on the buyer's actual loan amount. It answers the question an ARM raises before the buyer has to ask it. For owners, lead with the project, not the product: LendingTree found cash savings paid for 75.7% of home improvement projects in its latest analysis, per National Mortgage Professional, so the message that fits is what to do when a roof or furnace costs more than the savings account holds.