Bankrate's conventional 30-year reads 7.54% this morning, a hundredth under Thursday's 7.55% and 7 bps above a week ago's 7.47%, so the sheet is holding at the top of the range rather than pushing through it. Bonds did the work Thursday: Treasury's daily curve closed the 10-year at 5.22%, down 6 bps from Wednesday's 5.28%, and Mortgage News Daily called it the best level in four trading days. The 10-year is trading near 5.24% early today. The Fed gave that rally no help. Governor Christopher Waller said in Istanbul that he anticipates "additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal," noting that 16 of the 18 participants who submitted September projections expect at least one more hike this year and that futures put about an 85 percent chance on a hike by December. Freddie Mac's PMMS caught up with the earlier run-up, rising for a seventh straight week to 7.40% from 7.28%.
CPI is the swing factor next, in the October 10 to 15 window. Weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS follow on October 15, Consumer Sentiment's window opens October 13, and housing starts and permits land in the October 16 to 18 window. The Fed meets October 27 to 28, and that meeting does not carry a dot plot. Waller said the hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings," so a hot CPI matters for the December path as much as for October.
On the range, 7.54% sits a hundredth below the 90-day high of 7.55% and well above the 90-day average of 6.90%, with a 90-day low of 6.58%. The 30-day window runs 6.85% to 7.55%. The 15-year is at 6.84%, the top of both its 30-day and 90-day windows and up from 6.77% a week ago. MND's 5/1 ARM has held at 6.95%, the top of its 90-day range, for three sessions. Bankrate's FHA 30-year reads 7.23%, its high since that series resumed in mid-August, 31 bps under the conventional 30-year.
The focus today is in-flight purchase borrowers who are still floating into a CPI week. Thursday's bond rally barely reached the rate sheet, and the next scheduled data is an inflation print, with a Fed governor on record expecting more hikes. For FHA-eligible buyers, the 31 bps gap to conventional is worth putting in writing next to the full payment, including mortgage insurance. Do this today: Call every floating borrower closing in the next 30 days, walk through their payment at today's rate and what a quarter-point move would cost them, and get a lock-or-float decision before CPI lands!