Bond market quiet today, with no new catalyst to add to what we have covered this week. Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.55% for a third straight morning and the 15-year holds 6.84%. The 10-year closed Friday at 5.24% on Treasury's curve, up 2 basis points on the day, and Monday's Columbus Day close means no fresh Treasury print until Tuesday's session. Freddie Mac's PMMS rose for a seventh straight week to 7.40% on October 8, 12 basis points above the prior week.
The week turns on Wednesday, October 14, when September CPI lands; August's index rose 0.4% from July. Jobless claims and the next PMMS follow Thursday, October 15, and housing starts and permits are due in the October 16 to 18 window. The FOMC meets October 27 to 28 with no dot plot. CPI can move the 30-year in either direction, and it lands with the rate already at the top of its range.
The 30-year has climbed from 6.90% thirty days ago to 7.55% now, the top of a 90-day range that runs from 6.59%, with a 30-day average of 7.26%. Today's lens is the government side, where the spread is doing the work. Bankrate's FHA 30-year reads 7.24% and VA 7.28%, 31 and 27 basis points under the conventional 30-year, and both sit at their highs since Bankrate's government series resumed in mid-August. On $400,000, FHA principal and interest runs about $2,726 a month against $2,811 conventional, an $85 gap before FHA mortgage insurance. Jumbo reads 7.60%, just 5 basis points over conforming. On the ARM side, Mortgage News Daily's 5/1 sits at 6.90% against its own 30-year at 7.48%, a 58 basis point discount for borrowers who expect to move or refinance inside five years.
The focus today is in-flight purchase borrowers with credit and down payment that qualify them for more than one program, because the program choice is a payment difference you can put a number on today. Run the full side-by-side, including FHA mortgage insurance, so the comparison is honest, and settle lock-or-float before CPI rather than after. Do this today: text every unlocked purchase borrower closing within 30 days to book a Tuesday call, and bring a conventional-versus-FHA payment comparison to it.