Bond market closed today for Columbus Day, so there is no new session to price. Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.55% for a fourth straight morning and the 15-year holds 6.84%; the 10-year's last close was Friday's 5.24% on Treasury's curve. The one new input is the MBA's convention outlook from Chicago on Sunday: Mike Fratantoni forecast the 30-year averaging about 7.25% this quarter and staying above 7% through 2027, the 10-year averaging 5.1% this quarter, and two more Fed hikes, one in December and one in the first quarter of 2027. He also put the mortgage-to-Treasury spread near 220 bps, up from roughly 200 for much of this year.
Tuesday is the first session to reprice. BLS releases September CPI Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 am Eastern, then PPI Thursday, October 15, alongside jobless claims and the next PMMS. Housing starts and permits are due in the October 16 to 18 window. The FOMC meets October 27 to 28 with no dot plot; December 8 to 9 carries new projections and is the meeting MBA expects to hike. With MBA putting PCE and CPI both near 3.4%, a hot CPI print adds weight to that December call, and a soft one would ease it.
Bankrate's 30-year at 7.55% is the top of both its 30-day range (6.90% to 7.55%) and its 90-day range (6.59% to 7.55%), against a 90-day average of 6.93%. The lens worth a look today is the adjustable rate. On Mortgage News Daily's survey, where both products are priced side by side, the 5/1 ARM reads 6.90% against a 30-year of 7.48%, a 58 bps gap. Thirty days ago the same survey had them at 6.67% and 7.12%, a 45 bps gap. On a $400K loan that gap is now about $157 a month for the first five years ($2,634 versus $2,791), up from about $120 a month in mid-September. MBA's figures put ARMs at about 10% of loans by count and roughly 20% by dollars, with about 9% of units expected next year.
Focus today on purchase buyers with a five- to seven-year horizon who are stretching to qualify at 7.55%, and on jumbo files, where Bankrate's jumbo 30-year reads 7.60%. For any in-flight purchase file that has not locked, the CPI print Wednesday morning is the risk to manage, and Tuesday is the last session before it. Do this today: for every unlocked purchase file closing in the next 45 days, build a side-by-side of the 30-year fixed and the 5/1 ARM at today's pricing, including the ARM's caps and first adjustment date, and get it to the borrower before Tuesday's close so the lock decision is made before CPI.