The bond market is back after Columbus Day, and the 10-year Treasury yield opened at 5.19%, down from Friday's 5.24% close. Mortgage pricing has not followed yet: Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.57%, two bps above the 7.55% it held from Friday through the weekend, and the 15-year holds 6.84%. The one new input is Fed speak. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, an FOMC voter, called inflation pressures "relatively broad-based" on Monday and backed a restrictive stance, while saying higher rates will not lower energy prices or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That keeps more hikes on the table without adding urgency to October.
Tomorrow is the session that matters. BLS releases September CPI Wednesday, October 14, at 8:30 am Eastern. PPI follows Thursday, October 15, alongside jobless claims and the next PMMS, and housing starts and permits are due in the October 16 to 18 window. The FOMC meets October 27 to 28 with no dot plot; December 8 to 9 carries new projections. Redfin's read is that CPI and PPI would need to point to core PCE running above 0.3% a month to put an October hike back in play, so a print near expectations mostly feeds the December debate.
Bankrate's 30-year at 7.57% is the top of both its 30-day range (6.90% to 7.57%) and its 90-day range (6.59% to 7.57%), against a 90-day average of 6.94%. Today's lens is the government side, which moved the other way from jumbo this morning: the VA 30-year eased to 7.22% from 7.28% and FHA to 7.22% from 7.24%, while the jumbo 30-year rose to 7.66% from 7.60%. That puts FHA and VA 35 bps under the conventional 30-year. On a $400K loan that is about $2,721 a month in principal and interest versus $2,816, roughly $95 a month before FHA's mortgage insurance or VA's funding fee, which belong in any side-by-side.
Focus today on unlocked purchase buyers who could qualify FHA or VA and are stretching at 7.57%, and on jumbo files, where pricing moved the wrong way overnight. Today is the last session before CPI, so the lock decision on any file closing in the next 45 days gets made now or rides through the print. Do this today: for every unlocked buyer who is FHA- or VA-eligible, price the government option next to conventional at today's sheet, with MIP or the funding fee included, and get the comparison to them before the close.