The 10-year Treasury traded near 5.05% this morning, about 14 bps below Wednesday's 5.19% close, and it got there through a hot inflation print. BLS reported September final demand producer prices up 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, with the energy index up 10.8%; prices less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5%. Mortgage News Daily attributes the bid to a selloff in AI stocks that pushed money into Treasuries and warns it could reverse quickly if that fear fades. Census retail sales added a 0.8% gain for September. Mortgage survey levels have not shown the move yet: Bankrate's 30-year reads 7.50%, 3 bps above the 7.47% in yesterday's pulse, the 15-year sits at 6.82%, and Mortgage News Daily's 5/1 ARM average is 6.85%.
Next up, Freddie Mac's weekly PMMS is due today; the last print was 7.40% for the week of October 8. Housing starts and permits are expected October 16 to 18, jobless claims on October 22, the core PCE window opens October 23, and the FOMC meets October 27 to 28 with no dot plot at that meeting. For survey averages to follow this morning's rally, the 10-year has to hold near 5.05% into next week; a rebound in equities would take that away just as fast.
On range, Bankrate's 7.50% sits at the rich end of both windows: the 30-day range runs 7.00% to 7.57% with a 7.33% average, and the 90-day range runs 6.61% to 7.57% with a 6.95% average, so today is 7 bps under the 90-day high. PMMS tells the same story on its own survey, up 0.12 over its latest week and 0.64 over four weeks. On a $400K loan, 7.50% is about $2,797 a month in principal and interest, against $2,661 at the 7.00% Bankrate showed a month ago.
The focus today is pre-approved buyers still shopping, especially anyone whose letter was written in September when the 30-year was near 7%. Their payment on $400K is about $136 a month higher than the number they were given. Pair the refresh with the bond move: ask your secondary desk for an afternoon reprice before you send numbers, so the figure reflects today's market rather than the morning survey. Do this today: re-run every active pre-approval at today's pricing and send each buyer their updated monthly payment before 5 pm.