Quiet tape this morning. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.22%, unchanged from Wednesday's close, 0.01 point under the 7.23% in yesterday's pulse, and still the low of its 30-day window. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.90%, flat with Wednesday's close and 15 bps under last Wednesday's 5.05%. Mortgage News Daily described Wednesday's session as modest bond gains with two-way volatility while markets worked through the election results and the day's data, which included an October ADP private payroll report that MPA says beat forecasts.
NEXT is today and tomorrow. Weekly jobless claims are out this morning and Freddie Mac's PMMS publishes today; PMMS last printed 7.24% on Oct. 29. Friday brings the October jobs report and unemployment rate, after September showed payrolls up 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%. Scotsman Guide frames Friday's number as the test of how ready the Fed is to move again at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting, which carries a dot plot. After that, the 10-year auction lands Tuesday, Nov. 10, and the 30-year Thursday, Nov. 12, both inside the November 10–15 CPI window.
RANGE, through the 15-year lens: Bankrate's 15-year fixed reads 6.60%, the bottom of its own 30-day window and down from a 30-day high of 6.84%, against a 90-day range of 6.03% to 6.84%. The 30-year at 7.22% sits 0.35 point under its October 12 high of 7.57% and 0.17 point under its 30-day average of 7.40%, but still at the rich end of its 90-day range of 6.67% to 7.57%. The 15-year is running 0.62 point under the 30-year. On a $400K loan, the 15-year payment at 6.60% is about $3,506 a month against about $2,721 on the 30-year at 7.22%, roughly $786 more each month, while total scheduled interest over the life of the loan is about $231,000 on the 15-year against about $579,000 on the 30-year.
DO: the 15-year conversation is for borrowers with room in their budget and a focus on total cost, including move-up buyers carrying equity from a sale and refinance borrowers who are already several years into a 30-year. With Friday's jobs report able to move pricing either way, in-flight deals that close inside 30 days have a known number today. Do this today: for every active file where the borrower's debt-to-income leaves room, run a side-by-side of the 30-year and 15-year payment and total interest, and send it before Friday's report.