Quiet weekend tape. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.20%, 2 bps above Friday's 7.18% and 8 bps under last Saturday's 7.28%. The 10-year Treasury closed Friday at 4.86%, 2 bps above Thursday's 4.84%, a muted reaction to an October payroll gain of 165,000 against a 65,000 forecast, per Mortgage News Daily's recap. The firmer news came from the Fed side: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told CNBC, as reported by The MortgagePoint, that he expects further rate hikes and that a gradual pace makes sense, and the University of Michigan's preliminary November survey showed year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 4.3% from 4.7%.
NEXT is refunding supply and inflation. The $42 billion 10-year note auction is Tuesday, Nov. 10, inside the Nov. 10-15 CPI window, and the $25 billion 30-year bond auction follows Thursday, Nov. 12, the same day as weekly jobless claims and the next PMMS. Freddie Mac's PMMS last printed 7.18%, down 6 bps on the week and 22 bps over 30 days. The Dec. 8-9 FOMC meeting carries a dot plot.
RANGE, with the lens on jumbo this time. Bankrate's 30-year sits 2 bps above the 7.18% low of its 30-day range (high 7.57%) and inside a 90-day range of 6.67% to 7.57%, so it is near the cheap end of the month and the middle of the quarter. Bankrate's jumbo 30-year reads 7.32%, down 4 bps on the day and matching the low of its 30-day range of 7.32% to 7.66%, which puts the jumbo-to-conforming spread at 12 bps. On an $800K jumbo, 7.32% is about $5,495 a month in principal and interest against about $5,682 at the 30-day high, roughly $187 less. Mortgage News Daily's 7/6 SOFR ARM reads 6.50%, unchanged on the day.
DO: focus on jumbo buyers and jumbo pre-approvals priced earlier this month. Loan size turns a modest rate change into a large payment change, and a floating jumbo file now sits at the low of its 30-day range with an auction and a CPI print inside the next week, so the lock-or-float conversation is worth having before Tuesday. Do this today: list every jumbo file and jumbo pre-approval in your pipeline, rerun each at 7.32%, and send the borrower the new payment next to the one you quoted at the start of the month.