Bond market quiet, nothing new to add since Friday's close. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.20%, unchanged from Saturday and 2 bps above Friday's 7.18%. The 10-year Treasury last closed at 4.86% on Friday, and there has been no session since. Bankrate's 15-year is also flat at 6.60%, FHA and VA at 6.94%, and jumbo at 7.32%.
NEXT is a short, front-loaded week. The CPI window opens Tuesday, Nov. 10, the same day as the $42 billion 10-year note auction; Mortgage Daily's week-ahead puts CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET and notes the bond market is closed Wednesday, Nov. 11, for Veterans Day. Thursday, Nov. 12 brings weekly jobless claims, the next PMMS and the $25 billion 30-year bond auction. Freddie Mac's PMMS last printed 7.18%, down 6 bps on the week and 22 bps over 30 days. The Dec. 8-9 FOMC meeting carries a dot plot.
RANGE, through the 15-year lens this time. Bankrate's 30-year at 7.20% sits 2 bps above the low of its 30-day range of 7.18% to 7.57%, and inside a 90-day range of 6.67% to 7.57%. The 15-year at 6.60% is 1 bp above its 30-day low of 6.59% (high 6.84%) and inside a 90-day range of 6.03% to 6.84%, so it trails the 30-year by 60 bps. On a $300K loan, the 15-year runs about $2,630 a month in principal and interest against about $2,036 on the 30-year, $593 more each month, but total interest over the life of the loan is about $173,000 versus about $433,000. Against the 15-year's 30-day high of 6.84%, today's 15-year payment on $300K is about $40 a month lower.
DO: the focus is borrowers with strong cash flow who are refinancing or buying with a short horizon to payoff, the files where a 15-year quote changes the conversation. Do this today: pick three files where the borrower could carry a higher payment and send each a side-by-side of the 15-year and 30-year at today's rates, with monthly payment and total interest, before Tuesday's CPI release.