Quiet Monday open, with this week's catalysts still a day out. Bankrate's 30-year fixed reads 7.20% for a third straight day, 8 bps below last Monday's 7.28% and 35 bps below the 7.55% it read 30 days ago. The 10-year Treasury is trading near 4.84% this morning after Friday's 4.86% close. Bankrate's 15-year holds 6.60%, FHA and VA 6.94%, and jumbo 7.32%, all unchanged from the weekend. Mortgage News Daily's lead ARM, a 7/6 SOFR ARM, reads 6.50%, also flat. Nothing new from the Fed or the data calendar since Friday's payroll report.
NEXT is where the week happens. The CPI window opens Tuesday, Nov. 10, the same day as the $42 billion 10-year note auction. Thursday, Nov. 12 brings weekly jobless claims, the next PMMS and the $25 billion 30-year bond auction. September CPI ran 3.72% year over year, up from 3.35% the month before, so the inflation read is the print that can break the range in either direction. Freddie Mac's PMMS last printed 7.18%, down 6 bps on the week and 22 bps over 30 days. Housing starts and permits follow in the Nov. 16-20 window, and the Dec. 8-9 FOMC meeting carries a dot plot, with fed funds at 3.88%.
RANGE, through the averages this time. Bankrate's 30-year at 7.20% sits 15 bps below its 30-day average of 7.35% and 9 bps above its 90-day average of 7.11%, inside a 90-day range of 6.67% (Aug. 19) to 7.57% (Oct. 12). Read plainly: the 30-year has given back about 40% of its climb from the Aug. 19 low to the Oct. 12 high, and still sits above its 90-day average. On a $400K loan, 7.20% is about $2,715 a month in principal and interest, $101 less than at the Oct. 12 high and $142 more than at the 90-day low.
DO: the focus is unlocked files that close before the December FOMC. A level 2 bps off its 30-day low is a fair place to lock a borrower who cannot absorb a bad inflation print, and a borrower who chooses to float through CPI should make that call knowing Thursday's bond auction follows two days later. Do this today: call every unlocked file closing in the next 30 days and get a written lock-or-float decision before Tuesday's CPI window opens.